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UTC 15 : 32 04. Dez 2024
CET 16 : 32 04. Dez 2024
PST 7 : 32 04. Dez 2024
EST 10 : 32 04. Dez 2024
The Tarnish Sword Event is only Proof of how bad the RNG for PEN is
11. Jul 2024, 14:04 (UTC)
3424 27
Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 14. Jul 2024, 00:05 (UTC)
# 11
On: Jul 11, 2024, 16:14 (UTC), Written by Minarya

I dont really understand the complaint in this case. While yes, enhancing PEN (or higher) is at times excruciating, the event kinda... doesnt relate at all. For one, the upgrade method is entirely different, with lower chances but no downgrade, and no repair costs. Secondly, only one person per region needs to get the pen for everyone else to get the rewards for DUO and up, as long as they reach PRI. Since both EU and NA got a PEN in the region during the first week already, these extra light auras are for those of us who are perma afkers and too lazy to grind (aka me) who havent yet managed to enhance their sword to PRI (though dedicated fishing is enough to bring you to PRI already in most cases during the event period). So instead of a "oh no, enhancing PEN was too difficult for our players, we got to give them more chances", the line of thought by PA in this case was more "lets give everyone the good rewards as well, even if they were unlucky in enhancing so far".

Again.. not arguing that enhancing isnt straight up evil and soulsucking at times, but the extra auras arent because of the PENs

Not sure them giving extra during this weekend helps your argument there chief. Even with all the above crutches they still felt the need to give people extra to reach pri since enhancing really is THAT BAD. 

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 14. Jul 2024, 11:35 (UTC)
# 12
On: Jul 13, 2024, 17:38 (UTC), Written by SpiritDragon

Not buying it.  Currently at PRI with Tarnished sword and attempting DUO.  Burned through 240 Auras trying.  My stack is at 12 and it would not suprise me if I only hit DUO because my stack hits the guarntee DUO at 50.  That's potentially burning through a 1000 auras; who in the hell can grind a 1000 Auras?  Its why they introduced this event.  Bottom line, the 10% success rate from  PRI to DUO don't mean sh!t, because a 10% success rate is a 1 in 10 chance meaning at most its should cost someone about 200 Auras from PRI to DUO (20 Auras x 10 attempts).  RNG is so f'd up in this game.

Your Tarnished Sword is at PRI, and another player got it at PEN : you're already qualified to get all rewards, including server rewards. And people managed to reach PEN even before the additional event, that's more a catch up for players with less time to grind/fish.

That's why this event is absolutely awful to mention if the goal is the illustrate the obvious downsides of RNG in this game. 

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 14. Jul 2024, 19:33 (UTC)
# 13
On: Jul 11, 2024, 14:04 (UTC), Written by SpiritDragon

So, because there is such a dismal failure rate for hitting PEN on tarnished sword, PA introduces a "catch up event" that gives extra Event Light Auras (100/day) just for logging in.  

Same as how bad hitting PEN is in general, so they introduce Ancient Anvil.

Same with new players not having PEN who faces a long slog before ever getting one when the new FG weapons hit this fall.  So they give a free one to everyone.

Sad.

Just hit TET with pity after 50 hits.... PEN is worse 2% and another 50

Der Verfasser hat den Inhalt gelöscht.
Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 15. Jul 2024, 17:21 (UTC)
# 15
On: Jul 13, 2024, 17:38 (UTC), Written by SpiritDragon

Not buying it.  Currently at PRI with Tarnished sword and attempting DUO.  Burned through 240 Auras trying.  My stack is at 12 and it would not suprise me if I only hit DUO because my stack hits the guarntee DUO at 50.  That's potentially burning through a 1000 auras; who in the hell can grind a 1000 Auras?  Its why they introduced this event.  Bottom line, the 10% success rate from  PRI to DUO don't mean sh!t, because a 10% success rate is a 1 in 10 chance meaning at most its should cost someone about 200 Auras from PRI to DUO (20 Auras x 10 attempts).  RNG is so f'd up in this game.

While the enhance chance for the Tarnished Sword sucks, you're doing the math wrong; random chance isn't additive, it's multiplicative.

If you do the math properly (0.9^10) you end up with a 34.86784401% chance to fail all 10 in a row. You can't add the 10% together 10 times and say you should be guaranteed an enhance, as that's a misuse of statistical odds. You take your highest odds in decimal form and take them to the power of the number of attempts to get the likelihood of that specific outcome, which in this case is a binary pass/fail.

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 15. Jul 2024, 17:40 (UTC)
# 16
On: Jul 14, 2024, 19:33 (UTC), Written by ReconKangas

Just hit TET with pity after 50 hits.... PEN is worse 2% and another 50

You're misusing statistical odds in a similar way. You have a 98% chance to fail each enhance to PEN, which gives you a (0.98^50) 36.416968008% (0.36416968008) chance to fail all 50 in a row. It's why using failstacks and/or hyper-specific techniques to maximize your RNG is important - if you had a 96% chance to fail instead (a 4% chance to succeed, 0.96^50) the odds of failing all 50 in a row drop down to 12.988579352% (0.12988579352) and if it's down to 95% - a 5% chance to succeed - it's 7.694497527% instead (0.07694497527) because any additional chance to succeed has an exponential cascading effect on how unlikely it is to fail sequentially; you'll notice that doubling the chance to succeed more than halves the chance to fail (in fact, doubling it in this case just about reduces your chance to fail all 50 to a third of what it was) meaning that even a +30 Advice of Valks has a massive positive effect on your odds.

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 15. Jul 2024, 17:31 (UTC)
# 17

Sounds like a skill issue.

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 15. Jul 2024, 20:27 (UTC)
# 18

The 100 free auras per day thing is over, isn't it? I didn't get any today and I'm "only" at TRI so I guess this is where my event ends.

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 15. Jul 2024, 20:49 (UTC)
# 19

You only need pri for most of the rewards though, if it means so much to you then just go grind for the more light auras. Sometimes reading these posts I wonder what it must be like to be God. Has to really suck big time. People cry so much and its so much in just what, 20-30K people in this game. Almost 7.2 bil people worldwide, imagine how much God has to deal with on a daily basis. I'd just shut off my notifications and never look back. Probably what the dev's here did too. SMORT MOVE 

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 16. Jul 2024, 19:02 (UTC)
# 20
On: Jul 15, 2024, 17:21 (UTC), Written by Aisurukitsune

You're misusing statistical odds in a similar way. You have a 98% chance to fail each enhance to PEN, which gives you a (0.98^50) 36.416968008% (0.36416968008) chance to fail all 50 in a row. It's why using failstacks and/or hyper-specific techniques to maximize your RNG is important - if you had a 96% chance to fail instead (a 4% chance to succeed, 0.96^50) the odds of failing all 50 in a row drop down to 12.988579352% (0.12988579352) and if it's down to 95% - a 5% chance to succeed - it's 7.694497527% instead (0.07694497527) because any additional chance to succeed has an exponential cascading effect on how unlikely it is to fail sequentially; you'll notice that doubling the chance to succeed more than halves the chance to fail (in fact, doubling it in this case just about reduces your chance to fail all 50 to a third of what it was) meaning that even a +30 Advice of Valks has a massive positive effect on your odds.

Unfortunately in these regards it is 98% chance to fail if this used FS at least we would gain % as we grew the stack.

Though more taking issue it seems my account is cursed there arr the normals that already hit PEN these are the same people that get debo's to pen on 1st try every try..

Pen Black stars within a couple hits and never seem to lose anything.

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