Ah...I've had this exact same conversation on Nexon forums and the same type of people believed in the company rather than following the obvious gut feeling. Sometimes I wonder if they are PA plants to just support the company on these forums. They have all of the incentives to rig the probabilities, especially seeing how the Nexon kerfuffle played out, with only being $8.8m/$3000m, aka 0.29%, especially especially since investigating this information is really difficult to initiate from the gov institution's end. They can probably keep on doing it across all their games since they are designing no failsafe mechanisms(1) and the fine is nothing compared to the 99.71% of profit remaining from doing it.

RE, Fail/Success streaks:

The biggest takeaway is whether these are the pure raw numbers we're seeing on our screen are influenced by extra invisible variables (account rng, server rng, item rng, day rng, spending in cash shop rng, playtime rng, recent gains etc). We'll never know unless the KR FTA pokes into PA too.

On the other hand, what I often see in BDO is a misunderstanding of the statistics and game theory of the "dice rolls" for the enhancement system. There is NO cumulative success rate, which means that if the success rate is 1%, after doing 100 rolls - you aren't guaranteed to hit the thing at least once, you're just rolling 100 times trying to hit a single side of the dice. Each roll is unique on its own, and every consecutive roll doesn't magically add an invisible pity to accumulate so that you can hit the thing x/100 times. In some instances you can find on Reddit, there are 20+ failures at a 90% success rate, it just means that that person was just "lucky" enough to hit the remaining 10(%) sides of the dice when it rolled.

If you want to calculate the probability of hitting the desired outcome over multiple consecutive rolls, you can use the complement rule. The complement rule states that the probability of an event occurring is equal to 1 minus the probability of the event not occurring. Let's say you want to hit a 100 on a 100-sided die.

The event not occuring is calculated with 1-1/100 - lets call this L.

L(the chance of not rolling a 100 in a # of rolls) = (1-1/100)*power of n (n squared, can't put superscript on these forums xD)

N=number of rolls

To find the probability of hitting that 100 in # of rolls, you substract P from 1 - lets call this W.

W=1-L

You can find many premade calculators for this online that can be fed live data and update as you go. What's important tho is that even though the probability will increase as the rolls increase, it can never reach 1, AKA you have a chance of never rolling a 100 in any given set - or rolling only 100s at the same likelihood for a "fair dice". You can replace 1/100 with x/100 for any variance and add decimals for more complexity (which BDO has) to achieve a more precise simulation.

If you don't believe in fringe events, I've had a RL experience of me and another player rolling the same dice roll 3 times in a roll on a 20 sided die. Hitting a specific number has a 1/20 chance. Hitting the same number 3 times has a 1/8000 chance. Hitting that on two players squares it, so it's a 1/64000000 chance (aka 0.0000015%). So pen FG iz ez in comparison, especially since there was intent of every consecutive roll past the first one was to roll a different number on either die.

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Again, all of this assumes that the company named Pearl (Ingame Currency) Abyss (Hole) didn't give into their Buggati instincts and decided that 0.3% fines is fine for >90% profit.

(1)Until there are more robust and transparent failsafe mechanisms into how these things are rigged, the only way they can be barely touched upon is the primitive blanked ban from BeNeLux. What would be a cleaner solution is gov oversight into these systems and clear transparent access into their {live} cogs so that everyone knows they are not being tampered - along with public {anonymized} ledgers to be able to track users collectively for any funky business. What would be the best solution is the complete abolishment of all of these systems and adding linear non-rng based progression to the game, while keeping gatcha for events and premium things, and redesigning crons and artisans to have the same p2w value in a non-rng linear system. 

In short, to apply casino-like control over these gambles with real money too. Nothing new here. 

Aye sir. Unfortunately, the old farts across most legislatures across the world fail to understand that digital assets are still things paid for with ACTUAL REAL MONEY. They'll get phased out though...in a decade or so when BDO Reimagined (Still on BDOs Remastered engine after Reborn, BDO X, BDO Pearl, BDO +++, and whatnot) comes out on a new engine! :D

Do the statistics AND include the total number of players, along with the total number of events.  You are not just "flipping a coin" 24 times, you are flipping that coin thousands if not millions of times inititally, then picking out a string of 24 that you didn't like.  

Your RNG doesn't begin at that one time you did a pen tap or whatever you are crying about.  Your RNG beginss the moment you downloaded the game.  You have done millions upon millions of RNG interactions after the first year, yet somehow you want to cherry pick the 2 week period and 72 specific flips?  

I think you really need to go to a basic statistics class, stop lying, or stop manipulating data.  Not sure which one applies to you, probably all, but you lack a basic understanding.

old shoe, blizz did that with vanilla d3

Calm my friend, you won´t help anyone being angry about someones stupid statement about you.

Don't forget that also past data doesn't mean a thing for future results (again, assuming no extra tampering beyond the dice roll). The curve is not magically trying to correct itself so that after an ~infinite amount of rolls it becomes the exact roll % that it's claiming - in fact, we could find ourselves in a string where the curve deviates severely up and down from the exact % chaotically until the end of time. It will temper the peaks of its oscillations after more number of (N) rolls but never stop oscillating nevertheless.

The % number on the enchanting menu only provides us with the information on how many sides of the dice that are being rolled are allocated to a success. It just recently added a statistic (and they only recently started tracking knowing PA) of what stacks succeed at what rate on a specific item. However, past success/failure doesn't mean anything for future clicks which are just random at the point of clicking (allegedly), after which they become past success/failure data.

With an infinite set of time and # of rolls, we would just wiggle around the allocated success rate per item, but we would never achieve it as it's a set within which we're rolling within, not the rule that it's trying to equalize with.

People imagine the enchantment data/system connection to look like this:

Where the Blue line is the Success rate and players' enchantment rolls oscillate around it trying to make the total data (red) equal to the blue line over an infinite amount of time.

In actuality, it probably looks more like this:

Where green is the added enchantment rate which pushes the bottom of the success rate upper. Blue is the limiter which decides what roll is a success or not. All of the rolls are just random per-event instances that can land anywhere on the available range. If you zoom out infinitely over time, it will look like the dots are adhering to the probability of the rolls, however, zooming in or random sampling the entire set would probably show no such patterns and rather true random where every time a 100-sided dice is thrown and successes are the same percentages of sides as your failstack %.

Again,
all of this assumes that the company named Pearl (Ingame Currency) Abyss (Hole) didn't give into their Buggati instincts and decided that 0.3% fines is fine for >90% profit.

It would be simple to provide whitepapers and live ledgers to show how these work and what they interact with. Why any company that has a fair™ and balanced© wouldn't do otherwise is food for thought.

It addresses some confirmation biases related to the topic itself.

1. Is empirical/user data valuable in determining the rng algorithms?

No, it is not. Especially if the system is designed as I've explained as it seems to be by all accounts. Even if you accumulated an infinite set from the beginning of BDO until today via some API, it would probably tell you nothing beyond being a ledger of events. Ofc if PA is tampering with something heavily, it might be apparent in this Data, but otherwise, it is completely useless for discussing rng probably or algorithm design as any reverse engineering would be an assumption.

All of this is further compounded by the fact that the community hasn't done it's due diligence of doing a large-scale enough experiment on tracking such data - especially on holiday events. Maybe Garmoth will in the future, but I have a strong suspicion that if they tried they'd get a S&D.

2. Should we suspect PA when there is no solid evidence to point towards suspicion?

Ignoring the fact that they have the motive, means, and past constant rep sheet of predatory practices, along with the fact that we're talking about only a 0.3% bump in revenue over insane profit, there is still reason to suspect PA, or any company. It all rounds down to transparency and accessibility of SoPs and inner workings which can be looked over by people for their ethics. If you haven't looked into why PA lootboxes are banned in BeNeLux, it is because (along with many other companies) they refused to release the algorithms on their slot machines - something that other companies have done and have been successfully approved on those markets. Showing the alleged % number to get items in a box or hit an enchantment rate without external oversight and review of the algorithm is pointless - might as well not be there.

https://www.reddit.com/r/blackdesertonline/comments/fqba2q/when_you_dial_down_the_settings_just_right/

We'll still have to run it like this^