I figure i'll come back and post in this thread every 10 chests OR whenever i finally get the nol.

61 chests opened (48 oquilla eye, 5 kuit, 5 papua, 3 Ivero). 20 of these chests were from instant full maps I got from moss removal

Total of 524 map pieces dropped.

Oh btw, if you plan on doing the nol grind but havent started anything yet, do not get Oquilla Flowers through barter. It's pointless, I did this, got all my 1000 flowers from barters, but now i have over 2000 oquilla flowers between all those i got from opening treasure chests AND the occasional Bave RIcksa quests you get as special barters (each of these quests gives you 200). I mean even if you dont barter at all`and hence won't be getting the Bave Ricksa quests, if i were you i'd wait until after i dropped the symbol engraved nol and then you'll know how many oquilla flowers you need exactly, if any at all. I wish somebody would have told me this.

Here we go again

Total chests opened so far: 71  (54 oquilla's eye, 6 kuit island, 8 papua crinea, 3 Ivero cliff

Total map pieces obtained: 602

Map per pieces average: 8.47 (meaning i get a full map every 8.47 pieces in average)

Moss removal instant maps: 24

Moss removal instant maps drop rate: 3.98% (24 is 3.98% of 602)

Two days ago i also beat my record for most map pieces dropped in one grind session. For a little while now i grind 3 hours and a half a day, or about 400 margoria fleet ships, and two days ago I got 24 map pieces in that time. Previous record was 15. There's a 80% drop rate event and i grind on arsha so that explains that.

BTW I realise i'm the only peron posting in this thread now but i figure all this data might be useful to people who want to start the grind at some point. 

Total chests opened so far: 82  (64 oquilla's eye, 6 kuit island, 9 papua crinea, 3 Ivero cliff)

Total map pieces obtained: 712

Map per pieces average: 8.68 (meaning i get a full map every 8.68 pieces in average, the number went up recently cause I started keeping more doubles since I noticed in time eventually that I always end up missing corner pieces or the middle piece at the bottom so now I keep up to ten of each of these before I will do the 2 for 1 exchange whereas before i just kept 6)

Moss removal instant maps: 26

Moss removal instant maps drop rate: 3.65% (26 is 3.65% of 712)

I now beleive unlike what iIsaid earlier in this thread that the drop rate at oquillas is indeed probably 1%. For one because I did the math and indeed if it's 1% it means 50% of people would get the map before reaching 50 chests and if it seems like the vast majority of people who got the piece got it in less than 50, it's probably because of course only peopel who ever got the nol will report how mamy chests it took, whereas probably a lot of people who needed more than 50 chests either gave up eventually or are still going at it. 

In total about 75% of people should get the nol before a 100.  85% before or at 150  AND 90% before or at 200.  Leaving about 10% of people who will need between 200 to 350+ chests to get the nol. Right now I'm not yet a statistical anomaly because for one it doesn't really make sense to count the chests opened anywhere but oquilla's eye if these indeed have 0.5% drop rate. I only open those when I get an instant full map since of course you cant decide what map this will be. But yeah so really I've opened 64 chests that count, not 82.  No real reson to panic until I've opened 100 oquilla's eye chests.

Al;so if I'm opening more than a chest a day right now it's because of the drop rate event, this should go back down to about 1 a day or less when it's over.

You know  why?  It's like with Pens back in the  day. People which tracked the  pen rate data suggested that pen clicks had a success chance of something  like 10-15%, but when PA officialy released  the  numbers they were  actually at around 3-5% to succeced.  Alot of who had 20+ fails (thats 3x full pen roulette) gave up, while  the lucky ones got their pens already before they gave up. 

Same thing with nol, ppl who opened 50+ chest gave up, while  the lucky ones got their nol already before they gave up. 

Nol is stupidly rare and the only "reasonable" way to obtain it is either be carried or save up 2mil cc

Yeah this is actually what i came to realise in my last post  just above yours. 1% is probably right though.  If it was any less than this we'd have almost no one reporting on getting it before 50 chests not to mention it would make no sense to make it so rare that the CC route would be fastest almost every time. Besides these are the numbers on bdolytics which yeah.. I said didnt trust but now I have to assume they got this SOMEWHERE. Idk.

Either way i'm too far into this grind to go with the 2 million cc route. I'm determined to do at the very least 200 Oquilla's eye chests. If i don't get it by then, well.... we'll see. At my current rate that's about 130 days away (i'm at 70 and my average is about one a day) If i went the 2 millions cc route that's like a year away.   If it is indeed 1% it would be a pretty serious statistical anomaly for me not to get it by 200 (though possible)

I think probably the sanest way of grinding for this is to determine a number of chests after which youll give up and go the CC route AND already start getting all the CC you can from the moment you start grinding the symbol engraved nol. This way even if you set a limit of a 100 chests at least when you give up you'll have had all those days where you were also getting CC, you won't have wasted weeks.  

Anyway I was coming in here for my update.

Total chests opened so far: 91  (70 oquilla's eye, 7 kuit island, 11 papua crinea, 3 Ivero cliff)

Total map pieces obtained: 789

Map per pieces average: 8.67 (meaning i get a full map every 8.67 pieces in average)

Moss removal instant maps: 30

Moss removal instant maps drop rate: 3.80% (30 is 3.80% of 789)

FTR grinding at margortia fleet with LS level 2 earns aboit 450 mils an hour counting trash loot and stuff you can sell on mp. It's not great in 2024 by any means, `but it's better than the days when we were grinding crocs for essentially no money. For all i know i'm a slow grinder so it might be more than this for some, Basically with`the time i do there daily it earns me 1.5b. The thing to be said about CC grind is it might be part afk but it's still pretty long`to do all three runs and you're not making silver.`In fact you're losing some.  So there's that to be said for the treasure chests path to the nol. 

Yes I agree, margortia fleet was a good addition. I've personaly never liked crocs and it was also horrible silver wise. Kinda wish more treassure items had a save route like nol with the 2mil cc. Anyways I hope you get your nol soon!

Well........ I DID!

To say am I glad would be an understatement. I opened that 95th chest (or 73rd oquill'a chest) with the same blasé "who cares it's not gonna be the one" attitude and then I went... wait... didn't I just see my character cheer!? (I dont have sound or the upper screen notifications when you get rare items turned on). And so I quickly check my inventory... and there it was. I've never heard of anyone needing that many chests for the nol but as mentioned it's probably because most give up before this. It supports that it's probably a 1% drop rate.

So final update

Total chests opened: 95  (73 oquilla's eye, 7 kuit island, 11 papua crinea, 4 Ivero cliff)

Total map pieces obtained: 817

Map per pieces average: 8.6 (meaning i'd get a full map every 8.6 pieces in average)

Moss removal instant maps: 31

Moss removal instant maps drop rate: 3.69% (30 is 3.79% of 789)