Family Name: Pain_Train
Region (NA/EU): NA
Suggestions/Comments:
If I understand the market on items and enhancing materials, they're all fixed(to a degree) in a manner that reflects the perceived value of the item.
So, if a PEN BS is 150b, the thought is that on average it will cost you 150b of materials to hit said PEN.

Would you considering creating a system, similar to caphras, but reflects the amount of money you've put into an item?
Whereas when you've reached the perceived cost of the item, you get a free click to PEN on the item?

If you got the item "gauranteed" once you spent the average amount, then nobody would ever buy an item on market at its average cost. 

Right now, gambling has a chance to give you an item cheaper than market, and also a chance to give an item more expensive than market. Lucky people spend less, unlucky people spend more.  If you remove the chance to spend more than market, then gambling has a chance to be cheaper than market but never a chance to cost more than market. there would be no downside of gambling, so anyone who wants anything will gamble for it. 

If you personally dislike the idea that gambling can result in losing... just buy on the market. I know you don't want to hear that. But that is the answer for you. Implementing a system that caps the risk at market rate... would not work, because it would destroy the incentive to buy from market. 

I understand what you're saying. However, we had the ability to force PEN with caphras ( prior to Blackstar).
Its basically the same thing and people still bought PENs then, although I remember it would have cost alot more to do so. 
So, in that, we could make a PEN BS cost 190b(guaranteed) or something like that.

I see that alot of "lucky" people have downvoted the idea tho and I'm fairly certain PA would never do it anyway. So there is that..

I like the idea of the weapon remembering how many times you fail and just gaurentee it after you have failed the average rate by like 3x. 

So like 50-60 failed PEN BS would give it. 

Being lucky has nothing to do with it, but rather what Veltas explained.

As for caphras, you need to know that forcing gear to PEN using caphras cost about 2-5 times the market price of the PEN item itself. This is why no one used the option to force the item to PEN and instead just bought the item. Essentially, its the other way around to what you suggest.

What you suggest is an impossibility, because buying would be the worse choice in every instance, which would decrease market price, without affecting the underlying issue (if enhancement costs would be capped at current market price). It would simply be a race to the bottom. This is not sustainable in any economy. Market price is generally set at the average enhancement price, such that the upside and downside on both ends is balanced. Your suggestion will take away that downside, and is thus not feasible

People say it's on average more expensive to try getting t9 yourself than buying it from market.

Maybe 2 years ago, Nowadays I cant agree with this if we check number of materials PA gave away for free, T8 horses. Your first dream probably will cost u around 4-5b maybe  much less. Depends if u wait for free crons mats etc. Due to this free dream horse event they will probbaly add guaranteed method for dream horse like they did with floramos.

Here is the problem with your suggestion.  Averages can move.  An average takes into account all data points and sets a middle, if you remove all the upper points  the average goes down.  Eventually it goes to zero.  From a strictly mathematical standpoint your suggestion would not work ever because you would constantly be lowering the average.