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UTC 21 : 10 22. Jul 2024
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#Meinung
T10 awakening needs a much lower hard pity
29. Sep 2023, 19:59 (UTC)
1223 30
1 2 3 4
Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 30. Sep 2023, 14:34 (UTC)
# 1

Family Name: MadxScientist

Region (NA/EU): NA

Suggestions/Comments: 
Failing T10 attempts is brutal since each attempt takes a lot of time and effort. However, currently there is virtually no safety net (the current hard pity is at 486th tap, which is physically impossible to attain at the moment) and in fact there is a decent chance that years of effort will be deleted. I would like to suggest a retroactive hard pity at 30 taps (i.e., guaranteed success on the 30th tap). I will provide justifications based on the math in the next section and discuss the consequences of the proposed changes, and I would like to express some of my experience/feeling about the current system and the punishing aspect of the game in general at the end.

TL;DR

Current average number of taps for T10: 18 taps

Average number of taps if the 30th tap is guaranteed: 16.47 taps

83.95% of the players will get their T10 within 30 taps anyway, so this change will not affect them

The change will not affect the overall popularity of T10 by much either since the current average is already as low as 18 taps

16.05% of the players will be saved by this change

Further justification: before the FS system, average number of taps for T10 was 33.33; the current FS system has brought the average number of taps from 33.33 taps all the way down to 18 taps. The proposed change of setting the hard pity at 30 taps will only reduce the average number of taps by little bit compared with the massive reduction brought from the current FS system.

The odds, expected number of taps and time required under the current system

Expected number of taps

The expected number of taps under the current system is 18. Here is the math:

Let X be the number of taps until it goes. By definition of expected value, since X takes values 1, 2, ..., 486 (note that at +485fs, the 486th tap is a 100% hard pity), the expected number of taps E(X) is defined as 1*Pr[X = 1]+2*Pr[X = 2]+3*Pr[X = 3]+...+486*Pr[X = 486], which can also be written as E(X) = Pr[X > 0]+Pr[X > 1]+Pr[X > 2]+....+Pr[X > 485] The first term is equal to 1 since we need at least one tap. For 1 <= k <= 485, the probability Pr[X > k] that it takes more than k taps is the same as the probability that we have failed the first k taps, which is equal to (0.97)(0.968)...(0.97-0.002*(k-1)). It is not hard to compute these values using a spreadsheet and the result is E(X) = 18 (or 18.0005678414... with higher precision). I will summarize them in a table below, after discussing how long it takes to save up for an attempt.

Time taken for a single attempt

Assume master training and ignore the extra fern roots/feathers from events/imperial steeds. The average number of fern roots we can get per day is 50/7+6 = 13.14, so it takes 7.61 days or 1.09 weeks for an attempt if the fern root is the main bottleneck. Now mythical feathers are as bad as fern roots (if not worse). Since the T10 pity system and free T9, the number of preorders on NA increased from 8k to 17k and now at 18k, no sign of going down. Field bosses are the most reliable source for feathers beside the weeklies, but field bosses spawn at random time and it is not always feasible to go to. Just from weeklies alone it will take 2.5 weeks to get enough feathers for an attempt. I'll assume the time taken for an attempt is double when the feather is the bottleneck. So roughly speaking assume we manage to obtain one extra feather per week. Then the expected number of weeks for getting a T10 is 19.57 weeks when the bottleneck is fern root and 39.1 weeks when the bottleneck is feather.

Summary table

Here is a summary in a table for k = 0, 1, 2, ..., 40. The expected value E(X) = 18 is computed as the sum of the values in the third column (from left to right) for k = 0 to 485. As we suggested a guaranteed success at the 30th tap, we highlight the rows k = 30 to 35 in red for easy reference when we talk about what to expect if the change got implemented. 
k Success rate at +k FS Probability of failing the first k taps Probability of success in <= k taps # of weeks to save for k taps (bottleneck = fern root)
# of weeks to save for k taps (bottleneck = feathers)
0 3.00% 100% 0% 0.00 0.00
1 3.20% 97.00% 3.00% 1.09 2.17
2 3.40% 93.90% 6.10% 2.17 4.35
3 3.60% 90.70% 9.30% 3.26 6.52
4 3.80% 87.44% 12.56% 4.35 8.70
5 4.00% 84.12% 15.88% 5.43 10.87
6 4.20% 80.75% 19.25% 6.52 13.04
7 4.40% 77.36% 22.64% 7.61 15.22
8 4.60% 73.96% 26.04% 8.70 17.39
9 4.80% 70.55% 29.45% 9.78 19.57
10 5.00% 67.17% 32.83% 10.87 21.74
11 5.20% 63.81% 36.19% 11.96 23.91
12 5.40% 60.49% 39.51% 13.04 26.09
13 5.60% 57.22% 42.78% 14.13 28.26
14 5.80% 54.02% 45.98% 15.22 30.43
15 6.00% 50.89% 49.11% 16.30 32.61
16 6.20% 47.83% 52.17% 17.39 34.78
17 6.40% 44.87% 55.13% 18.48 36.96
18 6.60% 42.00% 58.00% 19.57 39.13
19 6.80% 39.22% 60.78% 20.65 41.30
20 7.00% 36.56% 63.44% 21.74 43.48
21 7.20% 34.00% 66.00% 22.83 45.65
22 7.40% 31.55% 68.45% 23.91 47.83
23 7.60% 29.22% 70.78% 25.00 50.00
24 7.80% 27.00% 73.00% 26.09 52.17
25 8.00% 24.89% 75.11% 27.17 54.35
26 8.20% 22.90% 77.10% 28.26 56.52
27 8.40% 21.02% 78.98% 29.35 58.70
28 8.60% 19.25% 80.75% 30.43 60.87
29 8.80% 17.60% 82.40% 31.52 63.04
30 9.00% 16.05% 83.95% 32.61 65.22
31 9.20% 14.61% 85.39% 33.70 67.39
32 9.40% 13.26% 86.74% 34.78 69.57
33 9.60% 12.02% 87.98% 35.87 71.74
34 9.80% 10.86% 89.14% 36.96 73.91
35 10.00% 9.80% 90.20% 38.04 76.09
36 10.20% 8.82% 91.18% 39.13 78.26
37 10.40% 7.92% 92.08% 40.22 80.43
38 10.60% 7.09% 92.91% 41.30 82.61
39 10.80% 6.34% 93.66% 42.39 84.78
40 11.00% 5.66% 94.34% 43.48 86.96
k Success rate at +k FS Probability of failing the first k taps Probability of success in <= k taps # of weeks to save for k taps (bottleneck = fern root)
# of weeks to save for k taps (bottleneck = feathers)

What to expect if the change was made

If the odds for the first 29 taps stay the same and the 30th attempt becomes 100%, it will reduce the expected number of taps by a little bit from 18 down to 16.47 (= sum of the values in the 3rd column for k = 0 to 29 because Pr[X > 30] = 0 when the hard pity is set to be at 30), it is far less significant than the current pity that was introduced with T10 doom which reduced the expected number of taps from 33.33 down to 18. But it will provide a safety net for 16.05% of the players (the percentage of the players who will fail the first 30 attempts). And yet it still takes at least almost 2/3 of a year to save up for enough attempts, maintaining the rarity of T10 although they are not rare anymore.

Alternatively, if the odds for the first 34 taps stay the same and the 35th attempt becomes 100%, the expected number of taps will become 17.14 (= sum of Pr[X > k] for k = 0 to 34). And it will provide a safety net for 9.8% of the players and it still takes at least almost 10 months to save up for the materials.

So regardless of whether a hard pity is set to be 30 or 35, only a small percentage of the players are affected. In my opinion it is important to give the unlucky players some love and protection. It is not fun to have more than half a year of work deleted just because the rand() function outputs a value less than 0.1605.

The punishing aspect of the current system and the game in general

Currently there are two major bottlenecks for T10 --- fern roots and mythical feathers. There is nothing we can do about fern roots but the situation of feathers has become worse. Before the pity system introduced in July, feather preorders were around 8k on NA and it went up to 17k after pity system and now at 18k.
People are forced to do field bosses and Offin for the feathers because it is close to impossible to buy from the market, it also means that not many people will sell feathers and hence even more impossible to buy. On the lifeskilling side, the yield from Laila's petals is disappointing. Recently I've gathered for close to 100 hours, managed to get 1k Laila's petals in two weeks thanks to the double minigame rate event, but only got 25 feathers (21 brilliants and 2 radiants) at the end. Maybe my luck is just garbage. Laila's petals are more like a bonus reward for lifeskillers but field bosses are not fun and the rewards are mediocre. On top of that they spawn at a random time on random servers. There is an entire discord devoted to reporting boss status and coordinating field boss trains. But due to a very high demand on the feathers, the trains have been going real fast. Meaning that you pretty much need to stop doing whatever you are doing and swap to your field boss alts ASAP and try to stick with the train. It is quite punishing in the sense that we are forced to do something not fun at a sudden, random time, at an uncontrollable pace. 
There are many things in this game that are insanely punishing and are purely RNG based. On one hand the chance on paper isn't that low and that's why many people managed to get it, but the punishment when you failed is devastating (BTW failure is also not rare). For example, the chance of one tapping a pen accessory on a 318 fs (16.4% chance) is about the same as failing 10 times in a roll on the same stack ((1-0.164)^10 = 16.7% chance). When it comes to debo it means that there are about the same number of people who have saved hundreds of hours as the number of people who have deleted hundreds of hours. Ebenruth's Nol is another example. I don't know how many sailor chests is the average but when you failed to get it from the chests the punishment is 9-10 months of bartering for crow coins, which takes close to 1000 hours. Now for T10, people are already punished for going hard for it early because there is no retroactive failstack. According to the table I showed above, the chance of failing the first 30 attempts is 16.05%, which is about the same as the chance of getting it in 5 taps or less. But the difference is night and day --- more than 32.61 weeks vs. less than 5.43 weeks, half a year punishment or six times more resources. Both have the same decent chance to happen. Despite how much I like the game and how much I'm addicted to it, sometimes situations like these just make me feel unfair and sad. When it comes to my turn to receive my punishments back to back (76 sailor chests no Nol + 27 T10 fails pre-FS + 33 T10 fails post-FS), it's hard to not ask myself "Why are we still here? Just to suffer?"
Edit: change some spacing to make it look better, since it is kind of long. Nvm it doesn't work.
Edit2: Add a TL;DR at the beginning since a long post with many numbers may put people off.
Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 29. Sep 2023, 20:53 (UTC)
# 2

relax bro, t10 is just the new shiny toy, a vanity item.

48 1790
Lv 61
Adonaj
Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 29. Sep 2023, 21:59 (UTC)
# 3
On: Sep 29, 2023, 20:53 (UTC), Written by Adonaj

relax bro, t10 is just the new shiny toy, a vanity item.

Exactly, let the 16.05% poor players to claim their shiny toy after failing so many time after so long, while the remaining 83.95% of the players who have done the same already have it anyway.

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 30. Sep 2023, 12:48 (UTC)
# 4
Écrit le : 29 sept. 2023, 20:53 (UTC), par : Adonaj

relax bro, t10 is just the new shiny toy, a vanity item.

it's not new. i started trying for peggy in 2021 (but only 11 tries). Then saved for uni that came in May 2022 (and did close to 100 hundred before fs system i stopped counting at 83). Since new FS, i'm at 17. Fern is not the bottleneck for me, it's feathers. Forcing me to waste time in field bosses getting 1 or 2 feathers every hour when lucky. Field bosses are the stupidest thing: gather, kill in 1min and pray to be lucky, then wait for next spawn/swap. rinse and repeat until you are lucky enough.

it's not just a shiny vanity item. Some players have been "working" very hard for something they would enjoy. But the game just gives them a middle finger. And when you see people, not even artisan in training, getting the 3 horses under 10 taps, it feels wrong.

22 206
Lv Privat
NotFluffy
Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 01. Okt 2023, 14:13 (UTC)
# 5

Totally agree.

42fs before update, 17fs after update here.
Meanwhile I have guildies that got 2x T10 within 6 attempts xD

As well mythical feathers market is broken and should be fixed, e.g.:
- greatly increase petals/fairy wings drop from lakiaros
- allow us to trade a T9 we can't sell for months on mp, to imperial horse delivery for else certain amount of feathers or fern roots

- increase feather gain from weeklies, accordingly with higher training level (just like with daily fern roots)
- restore horse racing and racing rewards!

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 03. Okt 2023, 22:59 (UTC)
# 6

Awakening t10 is so funny

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 03. Okt 2023, 23:08 (UTC)
# 7

I don't understand, if the developers want every player to eventually have 3 dream horses, why put artificial restrictions on fern roots and feathers

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 04. Okt 2023, 01:36 (UTC)
# 8
On: Oct 3, 2023, 23:08 (UTC), Written by AlexMalex

I don't understand, if the developers want every player to eventually have 3 dream horses, why put artificial restrictions on fern roots and feathers

And the crazy part is, to fail this many times (32fs in your case and 33fs in my case) under the current system is no longer common. We need to be pretty unlucky to reach that. Specifically, more than 85% of the players won't even reach 32fs. But the old system was so bad that people to this day may still think failing 30+ times is the common case.

I think being rare to fail 30+ times now might be part of the reason why not many people seem to ask for a hard pity, since most of the people who actively go for T10 these days would get it in 20-ish taps even though they are slightly unlucky (recall that average now is 18 taps and getting it in 20 taps or less is around 63%). Once people got their T10 they stopped caring (and be completely honest if I wasn't in the bottom 12% unlucky I probably wouldn't even bother computing the actual average number of taps and making this post).

My biggest worry is that even the developers would think a safety net of 30 taps hard pity will make T10 way too easy, despite the fact with proof that it will only decrease the average number of taps from 18 to 16.47 and as low as 16% of the people will be affected for each T10 they go for.

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 05. Okt 2023, 20:57 (UTC)
# 9

even with 30 attempts it's still not too easy as it's about 7-8 months per horse (with no events).

also, in fact, not all players after the introduction of the system for increasing success could achieve 30 failures in time. maybe our 33rd or 34th try will succeed, but that's still a 10% chance of success and a potential 10 failures

Zeitpunkt der letzten Änderungen : 05. Okt 2023, 21:03 (UTC)
# 10

in addition to your message
These failures would not be a problem if there were more attempts, but I am severely limited to one attempt per week due to the fern root. Also, the situation with feathers leaves much to be desired, as there is a severe shortage of feathers.
Here are my suggestions for obtaining these items:
-add a daily feather quest for the imperial horse supply,
-add a low chance of feathers falling from world bosses,
-add a feather as a reward for the blood arena daily quest,
-add exchange for a feather of any accumulated items (arena signs, taming seals or others)
-increase the number of fern roots per daily quest,
-add a chance of fern roots falling out from gardens or harvesting,
-introduce an exchange for fern root for flowers of delusion, light pink petals or other items.
At the moment, the content of getting a dream horse is a priority for me and I am experiencing a lot of stress that there is NO way I can speed up this process. For example, my 32 attempts lasted for six months and did not lead to success (not counting attempts before the introduction of the chance of success system).

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