Family Name: MadxScientist

Region (NA/EU): NA

TL;DR

Current average number of taps for T10: 18 taps

Average number of taps if the 30th tap is guaranteed: 16.47 taps

83.95% of the players will get their T10 within 30 taps anyway, so this change will not affect them

The change will not affect the overall popularity of T10 by much either since the current average is already as low as 18 taps

16.05% of the players will be saved by this change

Further justification: before the FS system, average number of taps for T10 was 33.33; the current FS system has brought the average number of taps from 33.33 taps all the way down to 18 taps. The proposed change of setting the hard pity at 30 taps will only reduce the average number of taps by little bit compared with the massive reduction brought from the current FS system.

The odds, expected number of taps and time required under the current system

Expected number of taps

The expected number of taps under the current system is 18. Here is the math:

Time taken for a single attempt

Assume master training and ignore the extra fern roots/feathers from events/imperial steeds. The average number of fern roots we can get per day is 50/7+6 = 13.14, so it takes 7.61 days or 1.09 weeks for an attempt if the fern root is the main bottleneck. Now mythical feathers are as bad as fern roots (if not worse). Since the T10 pity system and free T9, the number of preorders on NA increased from 8k to 17k and now at 18k, no sign of going down. Field bosses are the most reliable source for feathers beside the weeklies, but field bosses spawn at random time and it is not always feasible to go to. Just from weeklies alone it will take 2.5 weeks to get enough feathers for an attempt. I'll assume the time taken for an attempt is double when the feather is the bottleneck. So roughly speaking assume we manage to obtain one extra feather per week. Then the expected number of weeks for getting a T10 is 19.57 weeks when the bottleneck is fern root and 39.1 weeks when the bottleneck is feather.

Summary table

What to expect if the change was made

If the odds for the first 29 taps stay the same and the 30th attempt becomes 100%, it will reduce the expected number of taps by a little bit from 18 down to 16.47 (= sum of the values in the 3rd column for k = 0 to 29 because Pr[X > 30] = 0 when the hard pity is set to be at 30), it is far less significant than the current pity that was introduced with T10 doom which reduced the expected number of taps from 33.33 down to 18. But it will provide a safety net for 16.05% of the players (the percentage of the players who will fail the first 30 attempts). And yet it still takes at least almost 2/3 of a year to save up for enough attempts, maintaining the rarity of T10 although they are not rare anymore.

Alternatively, if the odds for the first 34 taps stay the same and the 35th attempt becomes 100%, the expected number of taps will become 17.14 (= sum of Pr[X > k] for k = 0 to 34). And it will provide a safety net for 9.8% of the players and it still takes at least almost 10 months to save up for the materials.

The punishing aspect of the current system and the game in general

relax bro, t10 is just the new shiny toy, a vanity item.

Exactly, let the 16.05% poor players to claim their shiny toy after failing so many time after so long, while the remaining 83.95% of the players who have done the same already have it anyway.

it's not new. i started trying for peggy in 2021 (but only 11 tries). Then saved for uni that came in May 2022 (and did close to 100 hundred before fs system i stopped counting at 83). Since new FS, i'm at 17. Fern is not the bottleneck for me, it's feathers. Forcing me to waste time in field bosses getting 1 or 2 feathers every hour when lucky. Field bosses are the stupidest thing: gather, kill in 1min and pray to be lucky, then wait for next spawn/swap. rinse and repeat until you are lucky enough.

it's not just a shiny vanity item. Some players have been "working" very hard for something they would enjoy. But the game just gives them a middle finger. And when you see people, not even artisan in training, getting the 3 horses under 10 taps, it feels wrong.

Totally agree.

42fs before update, 17fs after update here.
Meanwhile I have guildies that got 2x T10 within 6 attempts xD

As well mythical feathers market is broken and should be fixed, e.g.:
- greatly increase petals/fairy wings drop from lakiaros
- allow us to trade a T9 we can't sell for months on mp, to imperial horse delivery for else certain amount of feathers or fern roots

- increase feather gain from weeklies, accordingly with higher training level (just like with daily fern roots)
- restore horse racing and racing rewards!

Awakening t10 is so funny

I don't understand, if the developers want every player to eventually have 3 dream horses, why put artificial restrictions on fern roots and feathers

And the crazy part is, to fail this many times (32fs in your case and 33fs in my case) under the current system is no longer common. We need to be pretty unlucky to reach that. Specifically, more than 85% of the players won't even reach 32fs. But the old system was so bad that people to this day may still think failing 30+ times is the common case.

I think being rare to fail 30+ times now might be part of the reason why not many people seem to ask for a hard pity, since most of the people who actively go for T10 these days would get it in 20-ish taps even though they are slightly unlucky (recall that average now is 18 taps and getting it in 20 taps or less is around 63%). Once people got their T10 they stopped caring (and be completely honest if I wasn't in the bottom 12% unlucky I probably wouldn't even bother computing the actual average number of taps and making this post).

My biggest worry is that even the developers would think a safety net of 30 taps hard pity will make T10 way too easy, despite the fact with proof that it will only decrease the average number of taps from 18 to 16.47 and as low as 16% of the people will be affected for each T10 they go for.

even with 30 attempts it's still not too easy as it's about 7-8 months per horse (with no events).

also, in fact, not all players after the introduction of the system for increasing success could achieve 30 failures in time. maybe our 33rd or 34th try will succeed, but that's still a 10% chance of success and a potential 10 failures

in addition to your message
These failures would not be a problem if there were more attempts, but I am severely limited to one attempt per week due to the fern root. Also, the situation with feathers leaves much to be desired, as there is a severe shortage of feathers.
Here are my suggestions for obtaining these items:
-add a daily feather quest for the imperial horse supply,
-add a low chance of feathers falling from world bosses,
-add a feather as a reward for the blood arena daily quest,
-add exchange for a feather of any accumulated items (arena signs, taming seals or others)
-increase the number of fern roots per daily quest,
-add a chance of fern roots falling out from gardens or harvesting,
-introduce an exchange for fern root for flowers of delusion, light pink petals or other items.
At the moment, the content of getting a dream horse is a priority for me and I am experiencing a lot of stress that there is NO way I can speed up this process. For example, my 32 attempts lasted for six months and did not lead to success (not counting attempts before the introduction of the chance of success system).