Anyone have any data on individual pot piece drop rates? I'm working off of 0.0005% per piece which leaves an ideal drop % of 77.687% after 300k mobs. Now obviously this only affects the mobs that actually drop the pieces, so if you're doing Sherekhans for example each pack only has two mobs that drop them out of 5-6 total mobs in the pack. So you have a 2/5-1/3 efficiency rate per pack on that 300k, meaning you have to kill around 900k total mobs on average per piece.

But again this is an estimate based on a drop rate I don't know. Can anyone confirm the actual drop rate?

Nobody can does that. The required sample size is to big. Do you expect someone is grinding 100 pieces and counting the mobs ?

You are better off just believing that the drop rate is 0 even. You know how RNG works. The drop rates become meaningless at these numbers.

If you rule out spectacular yet meaningless extreme variations, you often hear reports of players spending 1 or several hundreds of hours into grinding to get a piece.

Yep. With this low drop rate and a large playerbase there's bound to be a player who will never get a potion assembled even if he/she spent every waking hour grinding the spots for the rest of his/her life.

It's stupid design and the devs know it. Hopefully they'll do something about it at some point.

Yes that's pretty much the deal Pearl Abyss explicitely stated: some players will get a treasure item and some might never get it.

Since we clearly got informed, kids will make stupid choices and shift the blame while crying while adults will make informed and responsible decisions.