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UTC 22 : 42 Apr 28, 2024
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#Suggestions
Enhancement system honesty
Feb 6, 2021, 17:25 (UTC)
771 4
Last Edit : Feb 6, 2021, 17:25 (UTC)
# 1

Just thinking it would probably be nice and most players would be happier to see an honest enhancement system. With the current system showing false % chance or odds, something ive been testing out for the last 12 / 13 months now, it would be nice if the devs or whoever is in charge to just be honest and change the current enhancement sytem to show the true % chances for enhancement atempts. From the chart ive built over the last year, mainly due to the fact that the % being shown was not really reflective of the outcomes, i decided to start cataloging my enhancement attemps to see what the actual odds were. Overall, ive noticed that for low level enhancements, ie pri, atempts or +6 to +9, the % shown mean pretty much nothing, its just purely random. having 70% chances shown and failing 4, 6 + times , or succeeding 3 times in a rown and failing once. this shows the % goes anywhere from 70% chance to succeed, to 15% chance. Again, RNG is a scapegoat term to deflect tryign to explain reality, do you really think using the term RNG when you go to a casino and you start winning against the house constantly will work? No it won't, they will call you out and see that you likely switched the dice in use to weighted ones. 

 

For enhancements at higher levels, duo +, the % shown is roughtly twice as high as the actual % of success. Or in another way to see it, your chances of success, are about 60% of the % the game is showing you. If you see 45% chance to succeed on enhancement, you succeed not 1 out of 2 tries, (roughtly the 45% odds) but usually, 1 out of every 4 atemps. 36% chance shown, 1 out of 6 atemps actually succeeds. Those are actual odds, those ae the odds or the % players want to see, not this buffed up crap we now have to atempt at making us believe we have decent odds of enhancing something, when in reality, its not. 

Last Edit : Feb 6, 2021, 18:34 (UTC)
# 2

I came to the same summise as yourself. The shown enhancement vaules do not reflect the actually end enhancement percentages. But it goes further then that tho. I'm pretty sure that officially speaking the enhancement vaules are true. However the way the add up to be is the questionable bit.

 

For instance instead of everyone having a 75% per a roll. For my experience and long term observation each account is giving a luck seed to stack up against each other. Which may make the percentage for yourself completely false. But the game can actually say that item overall % to succeed is true. I'll list two simple observations of this.

- Player A in 30 day period get 3 Vells Hearts and 1 Karanda Heart. While Player B in the same guild gets nothing in over 40 visits to the bosses.

- Player A in less than 1 hour get 3 distro to drop at Star's End. While Player B grind for 40+ hours without a single rare accessory drop.

Most would just discount this as simple RNG. But those that have a little know how about IT knows better.

 

I agree with you. I too wish they would show actually enhancement % on that item you are currently looking at. Instead of the overal rate of the item succeeding which is useless stats. But that'll more than likely go against their business model. So don't hold your breath on that.

Last Edit : Feb 6, 2021, 19:57 (UTC)
# 3

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

Learn more about the Player Sophism and Playful Sophism 

Bigandshiny Test and Explain
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1tYZ4u5Q3DY0_I645y9OUBg0OTOK-pX7xqOKHfh286BY/edit

In short. the% displays are good. It is your understanding of what the number means that is wrong.

Last Edit : Feb 7, 2021, 02:24 (UTC)
# 4

Yeah, no dude. Bigandshiny is full of it. His numbers are based on the principle called "The law of large numbers" Notice that graph only starts looking good when he hits 100 successes, 100 times. In other words, averages only start appearing at TEN THOUSAND SUCCESSES. Most people say that a pen takes 25 or so attempts on average before it succeeeds when you are using a stack near 150. That would give you close to a 5% chance. If the average was really 25 attempts, then the window should be showing a lot closer to a 2.7% chance. With a chance of 5%, half the people would actually be getting their pens at 14 attempts. If the chance really was 5%, that 25 attempt number would actually get about 3/4 of players their pens, not half. At least at the end of the enhancing section he is right when he talks about cumulative probability, but the entire first section is completely disengenuous.

 

No player is going to realitically go for more than 15 or so pens, and that would only be if they want a backup pen of all their armor and weapons. Notice in the much more "realistic" 100 successes the GRAND MAJORITY are over the expected 6 attempts, and due to the nature of 6 being such a low number, the failures that are over the expected bias the average to be WAY higher when you factor in the fails fewer than 6. Then it starts to even out when you have 1000 successes, but again, no player would EVER go for a thousand under remotely normal conditions. That entire document is a mealy-mouthed puppet defense of PA and clearly altered enhancement rates. And now you go around like a good little worker bee, spreading the cover and misinformation, which is completely pointless as everyone else is more than capable of simply testing it for themselves. And they have. and here we are.

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